Trump Told Europe to Pay Up. Europe Is Paying, Mostly
NATO's European members are spending at record levels after years of American pressure. The frontline states are leading, some big capitals are lagging, and the bill for Europe's defense is finally landing in Europe.
By Clara Hughes
Label: Altas World News Opinion Estimated read time: 7 minutes Key takeaways NATO says European allies and Canada raised core defense spending by nearly 20% in 2025, and five allies are expected to hit the new 3.5% of GDP core target this year, years ahead of the 2035 deadline [1][2][13]. The new budget season shows the split: France is boosting its 2027 military budget to 63.4 billion euros, while Italy's cabinet cut a planned defense windfall [5][6]. In our view, this is a clear win for President Trump's hard-nosed approach to allies, though the job is far from finished. From 2% to 5%: how we got here For decades, American presidents of both parties asked Europe to spend more on its own defense. In our view, most of the time Europe nodded politely and did little. That changed at NATO's 2025 summit in The Hague. Under pressure from President Trump, the 32 allies agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 [3][14]. The pledge has two parts: 3.5% of GDP for core military needs and another 1.5% for broader security-related items [3][14]. That 5% goal is just over double the overall level European members and Canada spent in 2025, according to Reuters [3][14]. In our view, it is hard to overstate how big a shift that is. The old benchmark was 2%, and several allies were still missing it last year. Albania, Slovenia and the Czech Republic all fell short of 2% in 2025, according to NATO data reported by Reuters [2][13]. The scoreboard NATO's July 2026 update tells the story in numbers. European allies and Canada increased core defense spending by nearly 20% in 2025 compared with 2024 [1]. In 2026, five allies are expected to meet the 3.5% core guideline already, and 17 are expected to meet the 1.5% guideline for security-related investment [1]. The leaders are the countries closest to Russia. NATO estimates for 2026 put Lithuania first at 5.33% of GDP on core defense, followed by Estonia at 5.1%, Latvia at 4.92%, Poland at 4.68% and Greece at 3.65% [2][13]. Ac…