The Independent Gambit: Can Osborn, Bodnar and Bengs Crack the GOP's Senate Map?
In Nebraska, Montana, South Dakota and Idaho, Republican senators and candidates face independents instead of the usual Democrat. The polls, the money and the Altas ratings show where the strategy is real, and where it is a mirage.
By Clara Hughes
Republicans go into the final week defending a Senate map that, on paper, should be among the safest in the country. Nebraska, Montana, South Dakota and Idaho all voted for Donald Trump by wide margins. Yet in each one the Republican nominee faces not a Democrat but an independent, and in three of them the Democratic nominee has withdrawn. It is the most unusual strategy of the 2026 cycle. Here is where it stands, based on the latest public polling compiled by IVN and other trackers, the fundraising reports and the Altas World News forecast. Nebraska: the real fight Nebraska is the one race where the independent bet has turned into a genuine contest. Dan Osborn, a former Kellogg's mechanic and union president who came within about 7 points of Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024, is now challenging Sen. Pete Ricketts. The Democratic nominee, Cindy Burbank, withdrew in July. The polls are