The Fed Is Expected to Hold Today. What Kevin Warsh Says Next Matters More for Your Mortgage

Markets see roughly a 90% chance of no change to the 3.75%–4% rate range, but a December hike is still widely expected. Here is what homeowners, savers and retirees should watch.

By Clara Hughes

The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision this afternoon at 2 p.m. Eastern time, six days before the midterm elections. For once, the decision itself is not expected to be the story. What Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh says afterward could be. Here is where things stand going in, what Wall Street expects, and what it means for families who are already paying more for gasoline, groceries and home loans. The setup In September the Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point, its first increase in three years. That left the federal funds rate in a range of 3.75% to 4%. This week, markets expect the Fed to pause. As of Tuesday, the CME Group's FedWatch tool showed about a 90% probability of no change, according to HousingWire. That was up from 84.5% a week earlier and 35.8% a month earlier. CNBC reported Wednesday morning that markets price less than a 10% chance of another hike today. The pause is not the end of