Retailers Expect a $1 Trillion Holiday. Shoppers Say Their Budgets Hurt. Both Can Be True.
The National Retail Federation forecasts November–December sales of $1.013 trillion, up 4.2%. But voters just told exit pollsters that inflation is squeezing their families — and Tuesday's inflation report lands as the shopping season begins. Here's how to read the numbers.
By Clara Hughes
Two pictures of the American consumer are competing this holiday season. They are both accurate. In one, shoppers are still spending. The National Retail Federation forecasts that retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025, reaching $1.013 trillion. That would beat last year's 3.1% gain, when holiday sales totaled $972 billion. In the other, families are stretched thin. In the NBC News Exit Poll taken on Election Day, just under 8 in 10 voters said inflation is causing hardship for their families. Understanding how both can be true is the key to reading this holiday season — and to protecting your own budget. Keep reading with Altas Premium. Below: what the NRF's forecast does