Nebraska's Senate Race Is Now a Coin Flip: Five Things Deciding Ricketts vs. Osborn
Sen. Pete Ricketts holds a hair-thin edge in the averages over independent Dan Osborn. A 2022 pardon, a railroad merger and a turnout fight will settle a race Republicans never expected to sweat.
By Clara Hughes
Nebraska is not supposed to be on anyone's list of Senate battlegrounds. Yet five days before Election Day, Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts and independent Dan Osborn are separated by less than a point in the polling averages. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ average, as of October 28, has Ricketts at 47.0% and Osborn at 46.3%. The Politix+ average actually shows Osborn ahead, 46.8% to 46.5%. Decision Desk HQ's forecast still gives Ricketts a 73% chance of winning, rates the race Lean Republican and projects a margin of about six points — a reminder that models weigh Nebraska's partisan lean heavily, even when the polls are tight. PollingSource, reviewing the race on October 24, called it a "genuine toss-up" and said turnout modeling may decide it. Here is what is driving it. 1. The polls have tightened Every major October survey has the race within the margin of error: Echelon Insights, October 17–24: Ricketts 47%, Osborn 46%. Impact Research, October 14–20: Ricketts 49%, Osborn 47% (50% to 48% head-to-head). The same firm had Ricketts