Michigan Democrats Won't Close Ranks Behind El-Sayed. Mike Rogers Should Make Them Glad They Didn't
The newest Detroit News poll gives Abdul El-Sayed the edge, but it also shows a Democratic coalition fraying at the edges — and a Republican with five days to win over the voters who are not sold on either man.
By Clara Hughes
Let us start with the number Michigan Republicans do not want to hear. The Detroit News/WDIV-TV survey by Glengariff Group, taken October 19–22 among 600 likely voters, has Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 51.4% and Republican Mike Rogers at 45.1%, with 3.6% undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 points. Among voters who say they will "definitely" vote, the race is closer: 50.7% to 46.5%. That is not a poll to wave away. Other October surveys point the same way, though more narrowly. Michigan State University's IPPSR survey, fielded by YouGov October 2–19, had El-Sayed ahead 48% to 45.5%. Marist's October 15–18 poll of likely voters had it 50% to 48%. The 270toWin polling average sits at roughly El-Sayed 49.0, Rogers 45.4. So this column is not going to pretend Rogers is cruising. He is not. But anyone who reads the Glengariff numbers all the way down will see something else: a Democratic nominee whose own party is visibly uneasy with him, in a state where the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters could decide whether Republicans keep their 53-47 Senate majority. A nominee his own party keeps at arm's length El-Sayed runs on