Iowa's Senate Seat Is a Turnout Test, and Ashley Hinson Has Said It Plainly

The polls are a coin flip. The Des Moines Register has picked Josh Turek. But Iowa's Republican nominee has the simpler closing argument — and the president is due in eastern Iowa on Sunday.

By Clara Hughes

Ashley Hinson is not hiding from the arithmetic. Barnstorming the state by bus this week with Republican officials at her side, the Republican nominee for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat put the whole race in five words: "if we turn out, we win." She is right, and the numbers say so. Iowa's seat, left open by Sen. Joni Ernst, is one of the races that will decide whether Republicans hold their Senate majority. The forecasters cannot separate the two candidates. The Cook Political Report rates the race a Toss-up. So does Sabato's Crystal Ball. Inside Elections calls it Tilt Republican. The PolitiKool average, as of October 28, has Democrat Josh Turek at 46.3% and Hinson at 45.6% — and notes the race moved 1.6 points toward Hinson over the past month. The VoteHub average has Hinson up half a point, 46.2% to 45.7%. In other words, it is within a whisker. In a race this close, the side that shows up wins. What the October polls actually say