Fox News Poll: It’s a Lone Star Senate showdown between Talarico and Paxton
Weeks before Election Day, Democratic engagement and positive ratings give Democrat James Talarico a razor-thin edge over Republican Ken Paxton in what is, so far, shaping up to be a...
By Fox News · Fox News
Weeks before Election Day , Democratic engagement and positive ratings give Democrat James Talarico a razor-thin edge over Republican Ken Paxton in what is, so far, shaping up to be a photo finish for the Lone Star State’s U.S. Senate seat. This analysis, released Thursday, is among Texas likely voters, unless otherwise noted. Talarico enjoys a net positive personal rating of 8 points (52% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable) while Paxton’s is underwater by 18 points (40% vs. 58%). Republicans are 6 times more likely to view Paxton unfavorably (32%) than Democrats do Talarico (5%). The GOP also has an enthusiasm gap: more MAGA than non-MAGA Republicans are extremely interested in the midterms (64% vs. 50%) and certain they will vote (76% vs. 65%). By contrast, two-thirds of DSA and non-DSA Democrats are extremely interested and nearly three-quarters of both groups are certain they will vote. FOX NEWS POLL: MICHIGAN VOTERS SPLIT BETWEEN EL-SAYED AND ROGERS Overall, Texas likely voters split on control of the Senate : 49% prefer a Democratic Senate while 50% favor a Republican upper chamber. Eight percent of self-identified Republicans prefer the Democrats in power vs. 1% of Democrats crossing over to pick the GOP. All this gives Talarico a slim 2-point edge over Paxton (51-49%) in the first Fox News Poll among Texas likely voters (so no comparisons are available). These matchup results are within the margin of sampling error. Among the larger sample of registered voters, Talarico’s advantage widens to 7 points (just outside the margin of error) — that’s up from a 3-point edge in July. GOP ambivalence is further reflected in Senate preferences, as non-MAGA Republicans are more than five times more likely to back Talarico than their MAGA counterparts (22% to 4%). The crossover echoes lingering divisions from the competitive GOP primary and runoff: 20% of likely voters who backed Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the March primary back Talarico. FOX NEWS POLL: VOTERS…