Florida Holds the Line: Why Ashley Moody Crossing 50% Matters, and What Could Still Tighten the Governor's Race

A new Times/Siena poll puts Sen. Ashley Moody at 50% and Byron Donalds up 4 for governor. With Trump headed to Daytona Beach on Friday, Florida looks like the Republican firewall, but the early vote is a reminder not to coast.

By Clara Hughes

In a midterm year when Republicans are defending ground in states such as South Carolina, Florida is doing what Republicans need it to do: holding the line. A New York Times/Siena College poll released October 28 found Republican Sen. Ashley Moody at 50% among likely voters and Democrat Angie Nixon at 44%. In the race for governor, Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 48% to 44%. According to Florida Politics, the survey of 813 Florida voters was conducted October 19–26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. Here is why those numbers matter, and what to watch in the final five days. 1. The 50% line In a two-candidate race, an incumbent at 50% is in a very different position from one at 46% or 47%. Undecided voters cannot, on their own, close the gap. Florida Politics' Jacob Ogles called that "perhaps more important" than the margin itself. Moody's lead is also consistent across pollsters. A St. Pete Polls survey commissioned by Florida Politics and