Down in the Polls, Not Out: How Republicans Can Still Win in November
The numbers one month out are a warning, not a verdict. Here is the honest picture, and the winning playbook the GOP already holds.
By Clara Hughes
Label: Altas World News Opinion Estimated read time: 7 minutes Key takeaways Democrats lead most national surveys one month before the Nov. 3 midterms, and Cook Political Report says Republicans are on track to lose the House [1][4]. The Senate is a true toss-up. Democrats must net four seats, and new Times/Siena polls show tight races in Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas [7][8][9]. In our view, Republicans win by running on the issues where President Trump polls strongest, border security and crime, while answering voters directly on prices. The honest numbers first We will not sugarcoat this for our readers. You deserve the real picture, because you are the people who will decide how this ends. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Every House seat and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot, 23 of them held by Republicans [7]. The national mood is tough for the party in power. The Silver Bulletin polling average showed Democrats ahead by 9.0 points on the generic congressional ballot as of Oct. 2, up from 6.7 points at the start of September [1]. The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan forecaster, wrote on Sept. 25 that Republicans are "on track to lose their House majority" and moved 15 races toward Democrats [4][5]. Democrats hold 215 seats and need to gain just three for control. Cook's most likely outcome is a Democratic gain of five to 15 seats [4]. Cost of living is the main drag. In an AP-NORC poll taken Sept. 24-28, 65% of adults said higher-than-usual prices are the result of Trump's policies [3]. Those are hard numbers. Here is why we think they are not the end of the story. Not every poll tells the same story Polls vary, and the spread matters. The Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, taken Sept. 26-28 among 2,200 registered voters, found the generic ballot tied at 50% to 50%. Among likely midterm voters, Democrats led by only two points [2]. That same survey put President Trump's overall approval at 42%. His best issues were immigration, at 48%, and fighting crime in…