Don't Buy the Blue-Wave Hype. Read the Poll's Fine Print.
The new national survey Democrats are celebrating shows the race tightening among the voters who actually turn out. With a week to go, that is a call to action for Republicans, not a reason to despair.
By Clara Hughes
Every election cycle has a moment when the press decides the story is over. For the 2026 midterms, that moment seems to be this week. On Tuesday, the Marist Poll released its national survey for NPR and PBS News. The headline number looks bleak for Republicans: among likely voters, Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 52% to 44%. Read past the headline, though, and the picture is far less settled. Even NPR, hardly a booster of the GOP, titled its write-up "New poll shows Democrats have midterm edge, with caution signs." The caution signs are where this election will be decided. The gap shrinks when you count real voters Start with the most important detail in the survey. Among all registered voters, Marist puts the Democratic lead at 10 points. Among likely voters, the people who will actually cast a ballot, it falls to 8. The registered-voter lead has also slipped. In September, Marist had Democrats ahead by 12 among registered