Budget 2025: key points at a glance

By Rob Davies and Rowena Mason · The Guardian World

Rachel Reeves is announcing her financial update – here are the main points, with political analysis Budget 2025 – follow live The chancellor’s opening remarks were somewhat overshadowed by the fact that the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) assessment of her budget’s impact were accidentally published early, in an unprecedented gaffe that the shadow chancellor, Mel Stride, called “outrageous”. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), in a document released early in what appears to be an extraordinary blunder, is predicting growth of 1.5% for this year, up from the 1% it predicted in March. After that, the forecast is for 1.4% next year and 1.5% every year thereafter until 2030. That means that every year from 2026 has been downgraded. Previously, forecasts were for 1.9% in 2026, then hovering between 1.7% and 1.8%. Inflation appears to be running very slightly hotter than predicted in March, coming in at 3.5% this compared with a forecast of 3.2%, then 2.5% in 2026 (up from 2.1%). Thereafter it is as you were, at 2% every year. Borrowing for 2024-25 has come in at £ 5.1bn , higher than the March forecast of £4.8bn. After that, forecast borrowing remains higher than the OBR’s March forecast in the short term. For 2025-26 it is £4.5bn (up from £3.9bn), then £3.5bn (vs £3.1bn)), £3bn (£2.5bn), £2.6bn (£2.3bn), £1.9bn (lower than the March forecast of £2.1bn), and finally £1.9bn in 2030. She says the UK will cut debt more than any other G7 economy during the period, with the government finances reaching a surplus of £3.9bn in 2029, £21.7bn the year after and £24.6bn the year after that. Fuel duty has once again been frozen for another five months at least, until September 2026. The rate has been frozen since 2010-11. After that, a temporary 5p cut to rates introduced in spring 2022 will begin to unwind. Shares in gambling companies plunged even before the chancellor stood up, after the accidental release of Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts re…