Brazil's Voters Just Sent a Message. Washington Should Be Ready
Flávio Bolsonaro, a Trump ally, beat the polls to finish first in the first round of Brazil's presidential vote and faces Lula in an Oct. 25 runoff. In our view, the result shows a hunger for change, but the race is open and the choice belongs to Brazilians.
By Clara Hughes
ALTAS WORLD NEWS OPINION | By Clara Hughes, Senior Features Writer | October 5, 2026 | 5-min read The polls said Lula would come first. Brazil's voters had other ideas. On Sunday, Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old conservative and an ally of President Trump, finished first in the first round of Brazil's presidential election, ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva [1][3]. Nothing is decided yet. The runoff is Oct. 25. But in our view, Latin America's largest democracy has just sent a message that Washington should hear. Key Takeaways Flávio Bolsonaro won roughly 47% to Lula's 45%, according to NPR, and will face him in an Oct. 25 runoff [2]. AP reported just over 56 million votes for Bolsonaro to Lula's 53.7 million, with 99.8% reported [1]. Private surveys had forecast Lula leading by about three points, Reuters reported. The right also made significant gains in Congress, particularly in the Senate, according to NPR [2][3]. The runoff is open. Lula, 80, says he is "very good in the knockout stage." Trump has not formally endorsed anyone [1][3]. Brazil has 214 million people and Latin America's biggest economy [1]. Its choice matters to American farmers, investors and anyone who cares about China's reach in our hemisphere. As the AP put it: "A win for Bolsonaro would increase U.S. influence in Latin America. If Lula wins, Brazil will keep its distance from Washington and continue to deepen its relationship with China" [1]. What Happened on Sunday Twelve candidates ran for president [3]. Neither leader cleared the more than 50% of valid votes needed to win outright, so the top two go to a runoff [2]. Bolsonaro took "some 47% of valid votes," Reuters reported, "beating the forecasts in most private surveys." Lula finished with about 45% [2]. "The pollsters missed badly," said Robert Muggah, co-founder of the Igarapé Institute think tank [3]. "Brazil wants change, that's the reading of what happened today," Bolsonaro said. "It's the end of the Workers' Party…