Brazil's Runoff Is Oct. 25 and the Polls Are Tight. Washington Should Prepare for Either Winner Without Wishful Thinking
Datafolha has Flávio Bolsonaro at 49% to Lula's 45%, a technical tie at the edge of the margin of error. In our view, the right's momentum is real but fragile, and America should respect Brazil's choice while preparing for either result.
By Clara Hughes
ALTAS WORLD NEWS OPINION | By Clara Hughes, Chief Opinion Editor | October 15, 2026 | 6-min read Brazil votes again on Sunday, Oct. 25, and the runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is close. The first big poll of the second round, from Datafolha, has Bolsonaro at 49% and Lula at 45%, with 5% planning to vote blank or null and 1% undecided [1]. Among valid votes, that is 52% to 48% [1]. Datafolha calls it a technical tie at the edge of its 2-point margin of error, with Bolsonaro more likely to be ahead [1]. A Quaest poll released Oct. 14 is closer still: 46% for Bolsonaro and 44% for Lula, a technical tie within its margin of error of plus or minus 2 points, from 2,154 people surveyed Oct. 10–13 [2]. In our view, that is good news for Brazil's conservatives, and a warning to everyone else, including Washington, against wishful thinking in either direction. Key Takeaways In the first round on Oct. 4, Bolsonaro won 47.03% of valid votes to Lula's 45.16%, according to Brazil's electoral court [3]; neither reached the 50% needed to win outright [4].