Arizona Republicans Have Come Home. Now Andy Biggs Has Five Days to Bring the Rest of the State With Them
Katie Hobbs still leads every public poll, but the GOP base has consolidated, voters over 50 are moving, and registered Republicans have returned more early ballots than Democrats. Biggs has a path, if he can make the race about the cost of living.
By Clara Hughes
Let us be honest about where the Arizona governor's race stands. Every public poll released this week shows Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs ahead of Republican Rep. Andy Biggs. The FiftyPlusOne polling average, as of October 29, has Hobbs at 49.3% and Biggs at 41.8%. But read past the headline numbers and something else comes into focus. Arizona Republicans, who were slow to rally in September, have come home. Older voters, the most reliable voters in any midterm, are shifting toward the Republican ticket. And the early-ballot count is running ahead of where Republicans stood at this point in 2022. None of that guarantees a Biggs win. It does mean the race is not over, and the next five days matter. What the newest polls actually say The HighGround Public Affairs survey, taken October 21–25 among 400 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 points, has Hobbs at 51.5% and Biggs at 39.3%. That is a 12-point lead, and it is a real problem for Republicans. But it is down from a 17-point