33 Million Ballots and Counting: What the Early Vote Does and Doesn't Tell Us

Democrats lead in party-registration states, as they always do. The state-by-state margins against 2022 are the part Republicans should watch.

By Clara Hughes

With six days until Election Day, Americans have already cast more than 32 million ballots. Depending on the tracker and the hour, the number is somewhere above 33 million. Those numbers will fuel a week of hot takes. Before anyone takes them as a forecast, here is what the data actually shows, and what it can't. The national picture On Point Politics (Oct. 27): 32,106,195 ballots cast in 46 states. That is 16,329,854 by mail and 15,776,341 in person. Another 32.19 million mail ballots are outstanding, and the pace is running about 12% ahead of 2022. NBC News tracker: 33,306,918 ballots, about 16.1 million by mail and 17.2 million in person, with 58.1 million mail ballots requested or sent. University of Florida Election Lab (via States Newsroom): more than 34 million. Professor Michael McDonald says